The running count tells you which way the shoe leans. The true count tells you how far. It's the number you actually bet and play by.
Why you need a true count
Imagine a running count of +6. With one deck left, that's a huge surplus of tens and aces packed into a small number of cards. With six decks left, the same six extra high cards are spread so thin they barely matter.
The true count adjusts for that. It expresses the count per deck remaining, so the same true count means roughly the same advantage whether you're at the start of the shoe or near the cut card.
| Running count | Decks remaining | True count |
|---|---|---|
| +6 | 6 | +1 |
| +6 | 3 | +2 |
| +6 | 1.5 | +4 |
| −4 | 2 | −2 |
Estimating decks remaining
You won't be told how many decks are left. You estimate it by glancing at the discard tray, judging how many decks have been played, and subtracting from the number of decks in the shoe. With a six-deck shoe and about two decks in the tray, roughly four remain.
Most counters estimate to the nearest half deck or whole deck. It takes practice to do this quickly and without staring, which is exactly why the app has a dedicated Deck Estimation drill.
A note on rounding
Counters round true counts in different ways: some truncate, some floor, some round to the nearest whole number. The most important thing is to pick one method and use it every time, and to make sure the index numbers you learn were built for that method.
What a true count is worth
A useful rule of thumb: each +1 of true count adds roughly 0.5% to the player's expectation. With good rules and perfect basic strategy, the house typically starts with an edge of around 0.5%, so the player's edge usually turns positive somewhere near a true count of +1 to +2.
| True count | Approximate player edge |
|---|---|
| 0 or below | House edge, about 0.5% or more |
| +1 | About break even |
| +2 | About +0.5% |
| +3 | About +1.0% |
| +4 | About +1.5% |
| +5 | About +2.0% |
These are rough figures. The exact numbers depend on the rules, the number of decks and how deep the dealer deals.
Sizing bets to the true count
Counting only makes money if your bets follow the count. Counters use a bet ramp: a plan for how many betting units to put out at each true count. Here's an illustrative ramp for a six-deck game:
| True count | Bet |
|---|---|
| +1 or below | 1 unit |
| +2 | 2 units |
| +3 | 4 units |
| +4 | 8 units |
| +5 or higher | 12 units |
A spread this wide wins more, but it also swings harder. Before you pick a spread, make sure your bankroll can absorb the variance. The app's EV calculator can simulate your exact game and spread so you can see the expected value before you play.
Basic strategy says never take insurance. With Hi-Lo, insurance becomes a good bet at a true count of +3 or higher. It's the single most valuable deviation, and a great first one to learn. See more deviations.